John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
On a per capita basis, this translates to $12,461 per resident in 2022, up from $9,305 in 2012 and $2,633 in 1970, ranking Merced County as the 36th fastest-growing in per capita government transfers among California counties over the past 10 years.
Meanwhile, Merced County had the 20th largest share of income derived from government transfers, making it one of the largest dependent counties in the state.
Among California's counties, Trinity County saw the largest increase in transfer dependency over the past 10 years, surging 2.9% from 38.2% in 2012 to 41.1% in 2022, and up 27.6 percentage points from just 13.5% in 1970. In dollar terms, government transfers per capita in Trinity County jumped from $12,601 in 2012 to $14,925 in 2022, contrasting to the $2,681 recorded in 1970.
For comparison, the statewide average was 15.5% in 2022, showing a lower dependency than the national average of 17.6%. On a per capita level, this translates to $11,927 per resident, compared to $11,542 nationwide.
Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).
In Merced County, reliance on government transfers was just 10.9% (or $2,633 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970. This has since increased to a total of 16.1% since 1970. This shift is largely influenced by increased healthcare costs, and economic transformations that have reshaped income sources across the U.S.
In 2022, the primary government transfer programs in Merced County included:
- Social Security: $2,209 per capita (17.7% of total transfers)
- Medicare: $1,939 per capita (15.6% of total transfers)
- Medicaid: $4,559 per capita (36.6% of total transfers)
- Income Maintenance Programs: $2,169 per capita (17.4% of total transfers)
With 11.7% of the population aged 65 and older, Merced County has a significant demand for Social Security and Medicare. However, counties with higher poverty rates also show elevated Medicaid and income maintenance participation.
Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans' income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,022 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,542 per capita) in 2022 nationwide.
According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.
| County | Dependency on Transfers (%) | Change Since 2012 | Change Since 1970 | Per Capita Amount (2022) | Per Capita Since 2012 | Per Capita Since 1970 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinity County | 41.1% | +2.9% | +27.6% | $14,925 | $2,324 | $12,244 |
| Del Norte County | 39.3% | +6.1% | +26% | $17,166 | $5,524 | $14,024 |
| Modoc County | 37.2% | +6.8% | +26.4% | $21,063 | $7,537 | $18,226 |
| Siskiyou County | 36.8% | +3.8% | +24.7% | $19,046 | $5,448 | $16,116 |
| Lake County | 36.3% | +3.4% | +15.4% | $16,563 | $3,656 | $11,621 |
| Lassen County | 31.8% | +8.3% | +20.8% | $12,950 | $4,857 | $10,208 |
| Yuba County | 31.8% | +2.2% | +20.2% | $15,320 | $3,508 | $12,635 |
| Shasta County | 31.7% | +1.4% | +17.8% | $17,135 | $3,926 | $13,833 |
| Tehama County | 31.3% | +2.4% | +19% | $14,813 | $3,732 | $12,003 |
| Plumas County | 31.2% | +3.4% | +16.4% | $18,548 | $5,217 | $14,678 |
| Tuolumne County | 30.9% | +4.2% | +16.7% | $16,290 | $4,282 | $13,148 |
| Mendocino County | 29.9% | +4.4% | +16.8% | $17,149 | $5,471 | $14,122 |
| Imperial County | 29.8% | +5.4% | +17.8% | $13,476 | $4,071 | $10,661 |
| Amador County | 28.8% | +4.1% | +17.4% | $13,970 | $3,156 | $11,057 |
| Calaveras County | 27.7% | +2% | +14.8% | $15,514 | $3,715 | $12,514 |
| Glenn County | 27.7% | +4.7% | +16.9% | $14,158 | $4,297 | $11,486 |
| Butte County | 27.6% | +1.3% | +11.7% | $15,156 | $3,993 | $11,677 |
| Mariposa County | 27.4% | +1.7% | +16.2% | $16,803 | $4,936 | $13,707 |
| Humboldt County | 27.1% | +3.6% | +14.9% | $14,667 | $4,212 | $11,714 |
| Merced County | 27% | +1.9% | +16.1% | $12,461 | $3,156 | $9,828 |
| Alpine County | 26.7% | +8.4% | +15.4% | $18,056 | $5,395 | $15,109 |
| Tulare County | 26.6% | +2.8% | +12.3% | $12,574 | $3,397 | $9,476 |
| Sierra County | 26.4% | +2% | +13.8% | $12,643 | $2,140 | $9,648 |
| Fresno County | 25.8% | +2.3% | +12.6% | $13,015 | $3,418 | $9,929 |
| Inyo County | 25.1% | +4.6% | +13.5% | $15,433 | $4,052 | $12,614 |
| Sutter County | 24.6% | +3.4% | +16.2% | $12,794 | $3,672 | $10,398 |
| Kings County | 23.9% | +3.2% | +13.7% | $10,173 | $2,898 | $7,777 |
| Stanislaus County | 23.5% | +1.6% | +9.7% | $11,991 | $2,923 | $8,707 |
| Madera County | 23% | +1.3% | +7.4% | $10,676 | $2,429 | $7,213 |
| San Joaquin County | 23% | -0.4% | +11.6% | $12,478 | $2,800 | $9,547 |
| Kern County | 22.6% | +4% | +12.1% | $10,122 | $2,414 | $7,589 |
| San Bernardino County | 21.7% | +0.8% | +10.9% | $10,706 | $2,705 | $8,081 |
| Sacramento County | 21.5% | +2.2% | +11.8% | $13,238 | $3,592 | $10,505 |
| Solano County | 20.8% | +3.3% | +12.6% | $12,097 | $3,716 | $9,915 |
| Colusa County | 20% | +1.3% | +12.4% | $11,121 | $2,712 | $8,574 |
| Nevada County | 19.9% | +2.4% | +4.5% | $14,479 | $4,012 | $10,792 |
| Riverside County | 19.8% | +0.8% | +8.2% | $10,171 | $2,505 | $7,089 |
| Los Angeles County | 18.7% | +2.9% | +9.4% | $13,893 | $4,569 | $11,125 |
| San Luis Obispo County | 16.8% | +1.9% | +3.8% | $11,393 | $3,431 | $8,441 |
| Monterey County | 16.4% | +2% | +10% | $10,646 | $3,052 | $8,575 |
| Sonoma County | 15.9% | +1% | +4.2% | $12,415 | $3,972 | $9,230 |
| Yolo County | 15.5% | +1.9% | +7.7% | $9,961 | $2,683 | $7,783 |
| El Dorado County | 15.1% | +1.4% | +4.4% | $12,405 | $3,574 | $9,472 |
| San Diego County | 15% | +1.2% | +7.7% | $11,109 | $3,036 | $8,918 |
| San Benito County | 14.7% | -0.3% | +4.6% | $9,080 | $2,129 | $6,594 |
| Ventura County | 14.4% | +2% | +7.3% | $10,959 | $3,429 | $9,117 |
| Napa County | 14% | +0.5% | +4.3% | $12,121 | $3,393 | $9,401 |
| Santa Barbara County | 13.6% | +1.6% | +6% | $10,320 | $2,930 | $8,072 |
| Placer County | 13.5% | +0.5% | +2.2% | $11,070 | $2,706 | $8,034 |
| Santa Cruz County | 13.4% | +1.2% | +1.2% | $11,582 | $3,868 | $8,372 |
| Mono County | 12.1% | +2.1% | +5.7% | $7,890 | $2,934 | $6,219 |
| Alameda County | 11.9% | -1.3% | +2.9% | $11,610 | $3,164 | $8,946 |
| Contra Costa County | 11.8% | +0.8% | +4.3% | $11,203 | $2,984 | $8,835 |
| Orange County | 11.7% | +1% | +5.7% | $9,775 | $2,631 | $7,988 |
| Marin County | 6.8% | -0.4% | +1.7% | $11,630 | $3,283 | $9,725 |
| Santa Clara County | 6.6% | -1.4% | -0.3% | $9,529 | $2,534 | $7,475 |
| San Mateo County | 5.3% | -1% | -0.2% | $9,223 | $2,518 | $7,241 |
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